Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?

The market has experienced dramatic price appreciation, surging 465% from 14¢ to 79¢ over seven days, suggesting significant new information favoring a rate cut with 79% implied probability. The extreme "No" yield of 3547% reflects severe adverse selection—traders are heavily penalizing the contrarian position, indicating strong consensus around a cut. With 39 days to expiry and $1.76M open interest supporting $819K in daily volume, liquidity is moderate but the 2¢ spread is tight, though the elevated realized volatility of 2059% and cliff risk index of 4 signal this remains a volatile, binary event with meaningful tail risk.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the change in the Bank of Israel Interest Rate resulting from the Bank of Israel’s May monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Israel after its May 25, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Bank of Israel interest rate decision schedule: https://www.boi.org.il/en/economic-roles/monetary-policy/interest-rate-announcement-dates-2025-2026/# This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Israel's announcement of their May 25, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the Bank of Israel Interest Rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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