Will Mike Cubbard win the 2026 Galway West by-election?

The 16¢ price reflects a heavily skewed risk profile, with a massive 550% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 19.9% on the No side, suggesting traders view a Cubbard victory as a significant long-shot bet. The 30¢ spread and extreme 2410% realized volatility indicate thin liquidity despite $1.76M open interest, with the market showing recent downward pressure (18¢ to 16¢ over 7 days) and a concerning 5/10 cliff risk score that suggests potential resolution complications. With 349 days to expiry and only $211K in daily volume, this appears to be a speculative niche market where information arrival is sparse (0.4/hour), making the pricing particularly susceptible to sentiment swings rather than fundamental Irish electoral dynamics.

Resolution rules

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade