Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?

The market is pricing in only a 17% probability that Rubio leaves the administration by end-2026, with the "Yes" side offering an exceptionally high 690.9% implied yield—a stark contrast to the 29% yield on "No"—suggesting significant mispricing or extreme confidence in his tenure stability. Zero 24-hour volume despite $10.8M open interest and a modest 3¢ spread indicates severe illiquidity, making the high yield potentially illusory given execution challenges. With 258 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 5, the market appears to be pricing in Rubio's appointment as Secretary of State as a stabilizing factor, though the asymmetric yield structure warrants caution about the reliability of these odds.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

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Regime

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