GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?

This market shows extreme mispricing with an 8% Yes price offering a 673% implied yield despite GRVT's governance token already being live and tradable, suggesting the market may have already resolved or the resolution criteria have been met but not yet adjudicated. The 5¢ bid-ask spread on just $6.8 in 24h volume indicates severe illiquidity, while the 1,466% realized volatility and 5.48 vol ratio reflect the market's uncertainty around whether the launch event has technically occurred under the stated definition. With 624 days to expiry, the extreme yield and cliff risk index of 12 suggest this is either a stale market awaiting resolution or contains critical ambiguity about what constitutes "launch" that hasn't been clarified by traders.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of GRVT's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If GRVT (https://x.com/grvt_io) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

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