Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Polymarket, closing November 3, 2026.
Also on kalshi at 18¢(Δ -2¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x4caf4c1f5e9294a32e922c14d3d48c67d2748f0482d6e4ae74c93f6ad43d91bb yes 100