Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. This market is pricing in an extremely unlikely scenario for OpenAI—just 4% implied probability—despite the company's current dominance in AI model development, creating an extraordinarily high 63,881% implied yield on a "Yes" position with only 14 days to expiry.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an extremely unlikely scenario for OpenAI—just 4% implied probability—despite the company's current dominance in AI model development, creating an extraordinarily high 63,881% implied yield on a "Yes" position with only 14 days to expiry. The 2,152% realized volatility and steep cliff risk index of 24 suggest significant uncertainty or potential manipulation, while the modest $2.35M daily volume relative to $8.46M open interest indicates relatively thin liquidity that could amplify price swings near resolution. The market's neutral regime and recent doubling from 2¢ to 4¢ over seven days warrants caution, as such extreme yields often reflect either mispricing or tail-risk hedging rather than genuine probability assessment.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x4d2cffc256f006db518438552bff4e09310ef84e2a728fdf4f17995f917c6210 yes 100