Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026?

This market displays extreme mispricing with a 4574.8% implied yield on the "Yes" side despite zero 24-hour volume, suggesting the 3¢ price may reflect stale liquidity rather than genuine consensus. The sharp 25% price decline over seven days (4¢ to 3¢) combined with modest $14,073 open interest and a 32 Cliff Risk Index indicates low conviction and potential for significant repricing as 2026 approaches. The specification requiring strikes across 11 distinct countries represents a historically high threshold—the US conducted strikes in roughly 7-8 countries in 2024—making the 3% probability reasonable, though the extreme yield spread warrants caution about execution risk on this illiquid contract.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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