Will Geoff Duncan win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Geoff Duncan win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing May 19, 2026. Geoff Duncan's Democratic primary odds have tripled from 4¢ to 14¢ over seven days, suggesting a significant recent information arrival (0.8/h), though the 14% probability remains modest with tight liquidity at $14.6k open interest.
Analysis
Geoff Duncan's Democratic primary odds have tripled from 4¢ to 14¢ over seven days, suggesting a significant recent information arrival (0.8/h), though the 14% probability remains modest with tight liquidity at $14.6k open interest. The extreme implied yield of 7003% on the Yes side reflects the long-shot pricing, but the 2927% realized volatility and elevated cliff risk index (6) indicate this market is highly unstable and prone to sharp repricing. With only 32 days to resolution and a tight 0¢ spread, traders should be cautious of binary event risk, particularly given Duncan's status as a Republican-turned-Democrat in Georgia politics.
Also on kalshi at 4¢(Δ +1¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Georgia, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Georgia Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Georgia Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0x54779506de80194c043252b74623c27ce2270aca09c3eb90fa812144064f51b3 yes 100