Club Universitario de Deportes vs. CD Garcilaso: O/U 2.5

Prediction markets currently give a 51% probability that Club Universitario de Deportes vs. CD Garcilaso: O/U 2.5. This contract trades at 51¢ on Polymarket, closing April 23, 2026. This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $184,911 open interest, suggesting trapped positions and a dangerously wide 56¢ spread that likely doesn't reflect true odds for a Peru Liga 1 match just 4 days from resolution.

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51¢
Bid/Ask 50/52¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $0·OI $4,396.634·Closes Apr 23, 2026·1d remaining
0x553ab6492f9b10ac71f6cdc561b547558d5f79b5969915485017f508e1e81528
7-day price43 snapshots · 9 regime
54¢51¢ current
Apr 1844¢Apr 22

Analysis

2d ago

This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $184,911 open interest, suggesting trapped positions and a dangerously wide 56¢ spread that likely doesn't reflect true odds for a Peru Liga 1 match just 4 days from resolution. The astronomical implied yields (12,046% for Yes, 8,741% for No) are artifacts of the pricing disconnect rather than genuine opportunities, and the recent 5¢ price decline from 51¢ to 46¢ may indicate late-arriving information or forced liquidation rather than organic market movement. With a Cliff Risk Index of 1 and neutral regime, this market is essentially illiquid and should be avoided unless you have direct knowledge of team lineups or injury reports that would justify the extreme mispricing.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming Peru Liga 1 game between Club Universitario de Deportes and CD Garcilaso, scheduled for April 22 at 9:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Club Universitario de Deportes and CD Garcilaso combine to score 3 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 3, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on liga1.pe. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 55664.5%
IY (No) 60301.3%
Adj IY 11859%
CRI 1
RV 135%
VR 0.06
▶ Full indicator table (8)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)55664.5%
IY (No)60301.3%
Adj IY11859%
CRI1
RV135%
VR0.06
IAR0.5/h
Overround1.8%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 8:58:31 AM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 8:53:24 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x553ab6492f9b10ac71f6cdc561b547558d5f79b5969915485017f508e1e81528 yes 100

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