Will the Republican Party win the NY-10 House seat?

This market prices Republicans at just 6 cents despite NY-10 being a historically competitive district, suggesting strong Democratic lean baked into current pricing. The 2,849.9% implied yield on the Yes side reflects extreme asymmetry—a Republican win would return nearly 29x the investment—though the $204.97 daily volume and $16.4M open interest indicate thin liquidity for such a high-stakes binary. The 201-day timeframe to the November 2026 election provides ample time for fundamentals to shift, and the modest 1-cent price movement over seven days suggests the market has largely settled on this bearish Republican view, though the 16 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution around late-breaking political developments.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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