Will Aaron Guckian win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?

Prediction markets currently give a 48% probability that Will Aaron Guckian win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?. This contract trades at 48¢ on Polymarket, closing September 8, 2026.

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48¢
Bid/Ask 42/54¢·Spread 12¢·Vol $0·OI $2,640.907·Closes Sep 8, 2026·139d remaining
0x576df0755393742f793a7a67016d482cd37ef1ef9d0623cc14fddafcadf1d83f
7-day price651 snapshots · 2 regime
72¢49¢ current
Apr 846¢Apr 21
Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at 51¢-3¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.92IY 69.5%Close-time delta 8774h

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Rhode Island, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Rhode Island Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 295.9%
IY (No) 232.7%
Adj IY 148%
CRI 1
Overround -0.1%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)295.9%
IY (No)232.7%
Adj IY148%
CRI1
Overround-0.1%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
12¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 9:51:03 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:38:17 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x576df0755393742f793a7a67016d482cd37ef1ef9d0623cc14fddafcadf1d83f yes 100

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