Spread: Damac Saudi Club (-2.5)

Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Spread: Damac Saudi Club (-2.5). This contract trades at 14¢ on Polymarket, closing April 23, 2026. This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $70.5k open interest and a massive 46¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting the 30¢ price may not reflect true market consensus.

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14¢
Bid/Ask 12/17¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $0·OI $1,046.36·Closes Apr 23, 2026·0d remaining
0x58d56c99744ad06c78f2dd75d37267c538bfff8a6eba94e1ff3946c0f5195173
7-day price212 snapshots · 4 regime
48¢15¢ current
Apr 1313¢Apr 22

Analysis

6d ago

This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $70.5k open interest and a massive 46¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting the 30¢ price may not reflect true market consensus. The astronomical implied yield of 12,550% on the Yes side and realized volatility of 1,224% indicate this is a highly speculative, thinly-traded position rather than an efficiently-priced contract. With only 7 days to expiry and a 6-point price decline from 36¢ to 30¢, combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 2, this market carries significant execution risk and should be approached with extreme caution.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming Saudi Professional League game, scheduled for April 23 at 2:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Damac Saudi Club" if Damac Saudi Club win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Al Okhdood SC". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on slstat.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Indicators

Adj IY 50000%
CRI 6
Overround 1.8%
▶ Full indicator table (3)
IndicatorValue
Adj IY50000%
CRI6
Overround1.8%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
5¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 5:57:19 PM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 5:53:23 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x58d56c99744ad06c78f2dd75d37267c538bfff8a6eba94e1ff3946c0f5195173 yes 100

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