Will the Democratic Party win the LA-04 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 9% Democratic probability despite LA-04 being a historically competitive district, generating an extraordinary 1,839% implied yield for Yes positions. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $31k open interest and a tight 1¢ spread suggests the market is illiquid and potentially stale, with the low price likely reflecting minimal recent trading rather than genuine consensus. The 10/10 Cliff Risk Index and 201-day timeline to the 2026 election indicate significant uncertainty remains, making this a high-risk contrarian opportunity if Democrats' actual chances exceed the priced-in 9%.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade