Will the Democratic Party win the CA-45 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry in risk-adjusted yields (517% overall), driven by a massive 1034% implied yield on the "No" side despite only a 15% probability, suggesting severe underpricing of Republican upset potential relative to the Democratic baseline. The $0 24-hour volume and modest $13.6k open interest indicate thin liquidity, making the 85¢ price potentially unstable and vulnerable to sharp moves as we approach the November 2026 election. The 6 Cliff Risk Index and 200-day timeframe suggest this market could experience significant repricing once campaign dynamics and polling data solidify closer to the midterms.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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