Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)

This Bayern -1.5 spread contract is pricing an 36% probability of a 2+ goal victory with just 6 days to expiry and near-zero liquidity ($315 open interest, $0 volume in 24h), creating an extremely illiquid micro-market vulnerable to manipulation. The astronomical implied yields (11,234% for Yes, 9,811% risk-adjusted) reflect the tiny position size and wide 8¢ bid-ask spread rather than genuine edge, while the 274% realized volatility and 2.0 cliff risk index suggest high uncertainty around the DFB-Pokal matchup. With neutral regime conditions and minimal information arrival (1.1/h), this appears to be a thin, speculative contract where pricing may diverge significantly from fair value due to capital constraints.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming DFB-Pokal game, scheduled for April 22 at 2:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "FC Bayern München" if FC Bayern München win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Bayer 04 Leverkusen". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on dfb.de. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Regime

Trade