Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

The 62¢ price reflects substantial uncertainty about Flávio Bolsonaro's viability as a second-place finisher, with the asymmetric implied yields (131% for Yes vs. 349% for No) suggesting the market is pricing in meaningful tail risk that he underperforms expectations. The recent 4¢ decline over seven days combined with extreme realized volatility of 276% and a vol ratio of 2.46 indicates this market is experiencing significant price swings, likely driven by Brazilian political developments and polling shifts ahead of the October 2026 election. With 171 days to expiry and moderate liquidity ($974k in 24h volume), traders should monitor information arrival at 2.1 events per hour for catalysts that could shift the consensus around his candidacy.

Resolution rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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