Will the Democratic Party win the IL-01 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing IL-01 as heavily favored at 93¢, but the market shows critical liquidity issues with zero 24-hour volume and only $18,417 in open interest, making the 1¢ spread potentially misleading. The extreme 2425.6% implied yield on the "No" side reflects the illiquidity trap rather than genuine probability—this is a classic low-liquidity market where the quoted prices may not represent true consensus. With 200 days to expiration and a high cliff risk index of 13, traders should be cautious about the reliability of this pricing until volume and participation materially increase.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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