Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?

The 48¢ Polymarket price implies a 48% probability of WTI hitting $100 in April 2026, but this appears significantly mispriced relative to the Kalshi venue trading at just 15¢ (implying 15% probability)—a 33-point arbitrage gap that suggests either Polymarket overvaluation or Kalshi undervaluation. The extreme implied yield of 3702% on the Yes side reflects the short 11-day expiration window, though the realized volatility of 1701% and info arrival rate of 2.7 events per hour indicate genuine uncertainty; notably, the price has already declined from 50¢ to 46¢ over seven days, suggesting weakening conviction. With $88M in 24-hour volume but only $29M open interest, liquidity is reasonable, though the tight 1¢ spread and cliff risk index of 1 warrant caution on execution near expiry.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and the final trading day during April 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For WTI futures, the active month refers to the nearest listed contract month. The active month changes at 6:00:00 PM ET at the start of the trading session two business days prior to that contract's last trading day, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month. For WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, the last trading day is defined as three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day), consistent with CME contract specifications. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

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