2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
97%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$135
1 contracts
Closes
May 10, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record
2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?: 3rd hottest
0x8a0c82…21ad
Analysis
This market asks whether the first three days of April 2026 will rank as the 4th hottest on record or lower, rather than among the top three. The current 43% probability reflects a significant disagreement between trading venues—Kalshi traders assign 60% odds while Polymarket traders assess only 32%, a 28-percentage-point gap suggesting genuine uncertainty about how April's temperatures will compare to historical records. The outcome depends on both actual temperatures during April 1-3 and the methodology used to calculate historical rankings. Resolution will occur when official temperature data from meteorological agencies becomes available, likely in early May 2026. The divergence between venues may reflect different interpretations of climate trends, seasonal weather patterns, or confidence in data sources used for historical comparisons.
- ›Global temperature anomalies in late March 2026 will establish the baseline context for early April conditions
- ›Kalshi's 28-point probability premium suggests venue participants expect either warmer-than-baseline April temperatures or stricter ranking methodologies
- ›Official ranking methodology (which dataset, which geographic scope, which averaging method) will be determinative for resolution
- ›Historical April 1-3 temperature records vary significantly across data sources, creating ambiguity in what constitutes 'top 3 hottest'
- ›No major weather pattern reversal or climate event scheduled between now and April 1-3 is known to alter seasonal expectations
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In climate
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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