What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?
Leader sits at 39% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$95.99 or below
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
$109 or above
Spread
35pp
contested
24h volume
$76K
liquid
Closes
May 8, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the WTI front-month settle oil price
Recently closed in oil
- Where are oil prices heading?last 60% · 1d
- What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $110last 49% · 1d
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.920last 85% · 2d
- Will average **gas prices** be above $4.60last 97% · 3d
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.975Above 4.540last 96% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (39% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In oil
Related reading
Oil Markets Eye $105 as Iran Risk Premium Holds
Crude oil continues to rally (USO +1.25%) as the probability of WTI hitting $105 by end of June rose 1¢ to 40¢. The decline in the 'oil below $85' contract by 7¢ signals traders are pricing out a near-term resolution to supply concerns.
Oil Markets Reprice as Hormuz Blockade Endgame Nears
WTI crude contracts are seeing aggressive repricing as the probability of the US lifting the Hormuz blockade by June 30 rises to 70%, up 8¢. The 'WTI ↓ $85' May contract collapsed 43¢, while '↓ $80' fell 5¢. Traders are pricing in a potential supply surge if the blockade ends, but the Iran deal timeline remains uncertain, creating volatility.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.