Will the Republican Party win the AR-03 House seat?

The market is pricing Republicans as heavy favorites at 91¢ in Arkansas's 3rd congressional district, but the extreme 1,845% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe illiquidity and potential mispricing of the underdog outcome. With zero 24-hour volume despite $15,962 in open interest and 200 days to expiration, this appears to be a stale or thinly-traded position rather than an active market, making the quoted price potentially unreliable for directional conviction. The 10/10 cliff risk index and massive yield asymmetry suggest traders should be cautious about treating this as a reliable probability estimate without confirming liquidity on competing venues.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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