Spread: Club Guabirá (-2.5)

This market shows extreme distress signals with a 13¢ price on a 2-day expiry, generating a theoretical 100,000% implied yield on the Yes side—a classic sign of either mispricing or near-certain resolution against the position. The 7-day price collapse from 32¢ to 13¢ combined with zero 24-hour volume and a Cliff Risk Index of 7 suggests the market has largely cleared out believers in a 3+ goal Guabirá victory, likely reflecting recent team performance or betting market consensus. With $164k open interest but no recent trading activity, any remaining positions are essentially locked in until the April 22 resolution, making this a dead market despite the sensational yield figures.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming Bolivia LFPB game, scheduled for April 22 at 6:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Club Guabirá" if Club Guabirá win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Bamin Real Potosí". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on lfpb.com.bo. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Regime

Trade