Atlético San Luis vs. Club Santos Laguna: O/U 2.5
Prediction markets currently give a 60% probability that Atlético San Luis vs. Club Santos Laguna: O/U 2.5. This contract trades at 60¢ on Polymarket, closing April 23, 2026. This over/under market shows extreme annualized yields (3,907% for Yes, 9,558% for No) driven by its imminent 6-day expiry and minimal $0 trading volume, indicating severe illiquidity despite $131k open interest.
Analysis
This over/under market shows extreme annualized yields (3,907% for Yes, 9,558% for No) driven by its imminent 6-day expiry and minimal $0 trading volume, indicating severe illiquidity despite $131k open interest. The 7-cent spread and neutral regime mask concerning structural issues: the realized volatility of 224% combined with a low volume ratio of 0.35 suggests the market may be mispriced or abandoned by active traders ahead of the April 22 match. With only 2.1 information arrivals per hour and a cliff risk index of 2, this appears to be a stale, low-conviction market where the 61-cent price may not reflect true match probabilities.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming Liga MX game between Atlético San Luis and Club Santos Laguna, scheduled for April 22 at 9:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Atlético San Luis and Club Santos Laguna combine to score 3 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 3, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on ligamx.net. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Indicators
▶ Full indicator table (6)▼ Full indicator table (6)
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Adj IY | 14333% |
| CRI | 2 |
| RV | 97% |
| VR | 0.04 |
| IAR | 0.4/h |
| Overround | 2.2% |
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x701ca0cb03018610cc3dc67e4f8bcc9e4dcb22ead2726cc030cd22795071bc23 yes 100