Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?

The 23¢ price reflects a modest 23% probability of eight US strikes across different countries in 2026, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 473.7% implied yield—a significant risk premium suggesting either deep skepticism about escalation or substantial tail-risk hedging demand. The market has declined 4¢ over seven days despite extreme realized volatility of 540% and a 2.60 vol ratio, indicating sharp intraday swings that haven't sustained bullish momentum; the neutral regime score and modest $22.7k daily volume suggest limited conviction either direction. With 258 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 3, geopolitical catalysts could rapidly reprrice this market, though the current pricing implies the baseline expectation is fewer than eight countries targeted in 2026.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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