Will the Democratic Party win the HI-01 House seat?

This market reflects an extremely lopsided view of Hawaii's 1st congressional district, with Democrats priced at 94¢ implying near-certainty of victory, yet the No side offers a staggering 2860% implied yield—a massive red flag indicating severe illiquidity and potential mispricing on the losing side. The $0 24-hour volume combined with only $20,318 in open interest suggests this market lacks meaningful price discovery, and the extreme yield asymmetry (11.7% vs 2860%) indicates the No position is essentially illiquid, making the 1¢ spread misleading about true market depth. With 200 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the market appears frozen at a consensus price rather than actively traded, so any actual capital deployment on the No side could face severe slippage.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

Trade