What is the current probability for "MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 92¢ (92% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on July 1, 2026. 70 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 45.6% and 6028.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 92% probability that MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?. This contract trades at 92¢ on Polymarket, closing July 1, 2026.

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92¢

Bid/Ask 91/93¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $5,128.79·OI $26,865.941·Closes Jul 1, 2026·70d remaining

0x742fec2bf8157b780b2cf6b188076b9bd830122e665c216bc0f1e2d77e21cd23

7-day price180 snapshots · 102 regime

94¢92¢ current

Apr 861¢Apr 22

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of MegaETH's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 24 hours after launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If MegaETH doesn't launch a token by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

Indicators

IY (Yes) 45.6%

IY (No) 6028.3%

Adj IY 5897%

CRI 12

RV 104%

VR 1.50

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	45.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	6028.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	5897%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	12	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	104%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.50	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.02	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 8:54:01 AM

Observability mediumEvent type financial

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 8:53:24 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x742fec2bf8157b780b2cf6b188076b9bd830122e665c216bc0f1e2d77e21cd23 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

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