Will Ryan Waldschmidt win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Ryan Waldschmidt win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Polymarket, closing December 19, 2026. Ryan Waldschmidt's 2026 NL Rookie of the Year odds have collapsed from 17¢ to 9¢ over seven days, suggesting negative news or injury concerns about the prospect, though zero 24-hour volume indicates minimal recent trading activity.
Analysis
Ryan Waldschmidt's 2026 NL Rookie of the Year odds have collapsed from 17¢ to 9¢ over seven days, suggesting negative news or injury concerns about the prospect, though zero 24-hour volume indicates minimal recent trading activity. The extreme 1496% implied yield on "Yes" combined with a massive 15¢ spread and 4927% realized volatility reflects the illiquid, speculative nature of this market with only $1,759.25 open interest. The high cliff risk index (10) and 24.27 volatility ratio suggest this is a thin, potentially manipulated market where large moves could occur on minimal information flow.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
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Trade
sf trade 0x772ef4f75408562e7135f0b07533795296cab31e58fcd37db67bd61ac314285e yes 100