Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the May decision?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 17¢ price implying only 17% probability of a rate increase, yet the Yes side offers an astronomical 4710% annualized yield—a red flag for either very stale pricing or structural illiquidity. With zero 24-hour volume despite $8.9M open interest and a wide 3¢ spread, the market appears frozen, and the sharp 6¢ price decline over seven days combined with 575% realized volatility suggests recent information arrival that hasn't fully equilibrated. Given the May 2026 decision is 41 days away and the RBNZ typically signals policy direction clearly in advance, the current 17¢ price likely reflects either outdated positioning or a genuine consensus against rate increases—but the zero liquidity makes this quote unreliable for actual trading.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s May monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its May 27, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy] This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their May 27, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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