Will Indonesia recognize Israel by June 30?

This market displays extreme mispricing signals with a 9,382% implied yield on the Yes side against minimal 24-hour volume of $8.05, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential manipulation risk on the $12.5M open interest. The 7-cent price decline over seven days combined with a 2,379% realized volatility and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 19 indicates this contract is highly unstable and prone to sharp reversals, likely driven by low-frequency information arrivals (1.9/hour) rather than fundamental reassessment. With nearly seven months until expiration and Indonesia's historically consistent non-recognition stance, the 5-cent price appears to reflect tail-risk pricing rather than genuine probability assessment, making this a liquidity trap rather than a reliable prediction market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade