Will the Democratic Party win the OK-03 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing in just a 5% win probability for OK-03, an extremely conservative estimate for a district that has historically leaned Republican, though the 3,456% implied yield on the Yes side suggests significant mispricing potential if Democrats mount an unexpected challenge. With only $22.6k open interest and $1.9k in 24-hour volume, liquidity is thin enough that even modest Democratic investment could move the price materially higher. The market shows a slight upward drift (4¢ to 5¢ over seven days) and still has 201 days until resolution, providing ample time for political developments to reshape expectations, though the neutral regime score suggests current pricing reflects genuine fundamentals rather than speculative extremes.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade