Will the Republican Party win the OK-01 House seat?

The market prices Republicans as heavy favorites at 87¢ in Oklahoma's safely red first district, though the 1¢ spread and modest $124.59 daily volume suggest limited liquidity for a contract with over $22.8M open interest. The extreme 1217% implied yield on the "No" side reflects the asymmetric risk profile typical of heavily favored outcomes, while the 7-point Cliff Risk Index indicates meaningful tail risk despite the neutral regime score. With 201 days to expiration, this remains a relatively stable market that has barely moved from 88¢ in the past week, suggesting the consensus view of Republican dominance in this district is well-established.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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