Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni by December 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 65% probability that Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni by December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 65¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 92¢ spread, making the 51¢ midprice unreliable for actual trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 92¢ spread, making the 51¢ midprice unreliable for actual trading. The implied yields are unusually high at 136.7% for Yes and 148.1% for No, reflecting the wide bid-ask gap rather than genuine probability divergence. With 257 days to expiration and only $39k open interest, this appears to be a thinly-traded position that would require significant capital commitment to move meaningfully, though the neutral regime and flat 7-day price action suggest market participants view a Trump-Meloni meeting as a genuine toss-up.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x7e20c901df94dece914f2b7e4a3b01fa5784f8e55beacc56b1263527d3bb15dc yes 100