Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 50% probability that Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?. This contract trades at 50¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026. The 57¢ price reflects moderate confidence in Anthropic holding the second-best model position by end-June 2026, but the extremely high implied yields (380% for Yes, 667% for No) signal substantial uncertainty despite the neutral regime—suggesting the market is pricing in significant binary risk around AI model rankings over the next 72 days.
Analysis
The 57¢ price reflects moderate confidence in Anthropic holding the second-best model position by end-June 2026, but the extremely high implied yields (380% for Yes, 667% for No) signal substantial uncertainty despite the neutral regime—suggesting the market is pricing in significant binary risk around AI model rankings over the next 72 days. With only $493.65 in 24h volume against $8.7k open interest and a 6¢ spread, liquidity is thin, making the 57¢ price potentially vulnerable to larger trades, particularly given the 304% realized volatility and 2.5 info arrivals per hour that could trigger rapid repricing as new model releases or benchmark results emerge. The 7-day price stability (53¢ to 57¢) masks underlying volatility, suggesting recent consolidation before a potential move tied to concrete model performance announcements.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
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Trade
sf trade 0xd0e97d28b706d26f47ada6b739674efe7768bf7a407481008474d5a0d4c4c55a yes 100