Will the Democratic Party win the MS-04 House seat?

The Democratic contract on MS-04 has collapsed to 7¢ from 8¢ over the past week, reflecting the district's strong Republican lean, yet the 2416.8% implied yield on the Yes side suggests severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns given zero 24-hour volume despite $34.7M open interest. The 1¢ spread and neutral regime score indicate this is likely a dead market where the extremely high yield reflects the mathematical gap between a 7% price and distant November 2026 expiry rather than genuine arbitrage opportunity. With 201 days to resolution and no recent trading activity, this appears to be a "zombie" position where traders are locked in rather than actively pricing new information about Mississippi's safely Republican district.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade