Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the June meeting?

This illiquid market shows extreme volatility metrics (2124% realized volatility, 9.01 vol ratio) with zero 24-hour volume despite $70.5k open interest, suggesting price discovery is severely impaired and the 60¢ quote may be stale. The 63¢ spread is exceptionally wide relative to the mid-price, and the asymmetric implied yields (451% vs 622%) indicate significant pricing uncertainty around a June 2026 event that's still months away. The 20% price appreciation over seven days combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 1 warrants caution, as this could reflect either genuine information arrival (5.5/hour rate) or illiquidity-driven mispricing rather than fundamental conviction.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for June 25, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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