What is the current probability for "Will Russia invade another country in 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 12¢ (12% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 246 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Russia invade another country in 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1089.7% and 20.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Russia invade another country in 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will Russia invade another country in 2026?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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12¢

Bid/Ask 11/12¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $10,612.129·OI $25,919.506·Closes Dec 31, 2026·246d remaining

0x8011cff605bac25673a202332b678e823cd7d82abad9e9770db01ea625808229

7-day price104 snapshots · 55 regime

51¢12¢ current

Apr 89¢Apr 29

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1089.7%

IY (No) 20.3%

Adj IY 908%

CRI 7

RV 5971%

VR 21.28

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1089.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	20.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	908%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	5971%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	21.28	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.9/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.17	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/29/2026, 9:01:36 AM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/29/2026, 8:53:27 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x8011cff605bac25673a202332b678e823cd7d82abad9e9770db01ea625808229 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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