Will Ben Midgley be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Will Ben Midgley be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $4,077 open interest, and the 5¢ spread reflects pricing uncertainty.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $4,077 open interest, and the 5¢ spread reflects pricing uncertainty. The astronomical 2850.6% implied yield on the Yes side combined with a sharp 7-day price decline from 17¢ to 6¢ suggests either recent negative news about Midgley's candidacy or a correction from an artificially inflated price, though the thin liquidity makes the 11¢ current price potentially unreliable. With 201 days until the November 2026 close and a moderate 16 cliff risk index, this market may see significant repricing once Maine's Republican primary dynamics become clearer.
Also on polymarket at 8¢(Δ +7¢)
Resolution rules
If Ben Midgley wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Maine Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVMENOMR-26-BMID yes 100