When will Beam Therapeutics Inc. submit a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA?
Prediction markets currently give a 32% probability that When will Beam Therapeutics Inc. submit a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA?. This contract trades at 32¢ on Kalshi, closing October 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $61 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 41-cent price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $61 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 41-cent price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 462.8% implied yield on the Yes side is notably high, suggesting either significant underpricing or substantial tail risk that the market isn't adequately compensating for given the 168-day timeframe. With a 9-cent spread and low cliff risk (2), this appears to be a speculative position rather than an actively traded market, so any trades should account for potential difficulty in exit liquidity.
Resolution rules
If Beam Therapeutics Inc. submits a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNEWDRUGAPPBEAM-RIST-26OCT01 yes 100