Will the Audemars Piguet Index hit $41,000 (LOW) by April 30?
Prediction markets currently give a 28% probability that Will the Audemars Piguet Index hit $41,000 (LOW) by April 30?. This contract trades at 28¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme volatility with 822% realized volatility and an implausibly high implied yield of 3,830% on the YES side, suggesting significant mispricing or illiquidity concerns given the modest $30.996 daily volume and wide 34¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme volatility with 822% realized volatility and an implausibly high implied yield of 3,830% on the YES side, suggesting significant mispricing or illiquidity concerns given the modest $30.996 daily volume and wide 34¢ spread. The price has surged 34% over seven days (32¢ to 43¢), indicating recent bullish sentiment that the AP Index will stay above $41,000 through April 30, 2026, though with only 14 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the market may be pricing in tail risk rather than fundamental conviction. The 0.78 vol ratio and 1.5/hour info arrival rate suggest active trading but potential for rapid repricing if new watch market data emerges.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, for any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Audemars Piguet price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Subdial — specifically, the Audemars Piguet Index chart available at https://subdial.com/market. The daily values in USD shown on the chart will be used for resolution. This market refers to prices displayed in USD. To switch the display currency, use the currency toggle located at the left beneath the graph and select “USD” instead of “GBP”. This market will resolve as soon as the price shown on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Audemars Piguet chart reaches the listed price, or once the value for April 30, 2026, is published, and the listed price has not been reached. If no data for April 30, 2026, has been published by May 14, 2026, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. Revisions made to published data points on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Audemars Piguet chart before the April 30, 2026 data point has been published will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after the April 30, 2026, data point has been finalized will not be considered.
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sf trade 0x810ea3f7e644abd342421a415bc93b07838fdd84111de6b7c5ee836bbfc33b8d yes 100