No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting?

The 66¢ price reflects a two-thirds probability of no BoE rate change, supported by a modest 7-day rally from 59¢, but the market shows severe illiquidity with only $4 in 24-hour volume against $2.09M open interest and a punishing 13¢ spread. The extraordinarily high realized volatility (439%) and asymmetric implied yields—1,130% for a "No" outcome versus 300% for "Yes"—suggest either thin positioning or significant uncertainty about monetary policy direction, though the neutral regime score and low cliff risk index (2) indicate no imminent catalyst before the June 18 resolution.

Resolution rules

The summary for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting for June 2026 is scheduled to be released on June 18, 2026. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Indicators

Regime

Trade