What is the current probability for "Will Malaysia recognize Israel by June 30?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 4¢ (4% implied probability) on Polymarket. 69 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Malaysia recognize Israel by June 30?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 12764.1% and 22.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Malaysia recognize Israel by June 30?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Malaysia recognize Israel by June 30?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Malaysia recognize Israel by June 30?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket.

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4¢

Bid/Ask 2/6¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $1,611.63·OI $16,992.838·69d remaining

0x84872ef509e8c16de463f534bbbc8233291073c9d1a6adeebf6cb34bfe83f75e

7-day price138 snapshots · 20 regime

7¢4¢ current

Apr 102¢Apr 22

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 12764.1%

IY (No) 22.2%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 24

RV 3400%

VR 3.03

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	12764.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	22.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	3400%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.03	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	1.00	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 8:53:42 AM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 8:53:24 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x84872ef509e8c16de463f534bbbc8233291073c9d1a6adeebf6cb34bfe83f75e yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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