Will Ilia Topuria fight Max Holloway next?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1794% implied yield on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume, suggesting the 6¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus. The 8¢ spread is notably wide relative to the price level, and the realized volatility of 3348% indicates this contract has experienced massive swings—likely driven by sparse, low-liquidity trades rather than fundamental information arrival. With 319 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 16, the market has substantial time for a Topuria-Holloway matchup announcement, but the illiquidity ($650k open interest with no daily volume) makes this a poor venue for serious position-taking.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the next UFC fighter that Max Holloway is officially announced to face in a UFC bout. Resolution for this market will be based on the next UFC fighter that Max Holloway is officially announced to fight, regardless of whether the fight ends up taking place. Only official announcements from the UFC, which include a scheduled date for the bout, will count. Announcements with no date or which do not confirm that the fight is official, speculation, or other unofficial announcements will not count. If Max Holloway is officially announced to fight any non-listed fighter or no qualifying announcement is made by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

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