What is the current probability for "Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 7¢ (7% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2028. 619 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 784.0% and 4.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2028.

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7¢

Bid/Ask 6/8¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $0·OI $11,245.562·Closes Jan 1, 2028·619d remaining

0x88b2827dd9bb9b3ebd4f229561a7606bd2bbdedbf3dfbb9c563e1e7dd2673747

7-day price18 snapshots · 2 regime

9¢7¢ current

Apr 86¢Apr 20

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Indicators

IY (Yes) 784.0%

IY (No) 4.4%

Adj IY 392%

CRI 13

Overround 1.8%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	784.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	4.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	392%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	13	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 10:45:51 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 10:38:24 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x88b2827dd9bb9b3ebd4f229561a7606bd2bbdedbf3dfbb9c563e1e7dd2673747 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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