Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Polymarket, closing October 31, 2026. The Mariners' 7-cent price reflects a heavily discounted long-shot position with an extreme 2461% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting significant underpricing relative to their actual championship odds or substantial risk premium demanded by the market.
Analysis
The Mariners' 7-cent price reflects a heavily discounted long-shot position with an extreme 2461% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting significant underpricing relative to their actual championship odds or substantial risk premium demanded by the market. With $117.8k open interest against only $6.9k in 24-hour volume, liquidity is notably thin for a major sports futures contract, creating potential execution challenges for larger positions. The neutral regime score and modest 7-day price appreciation from 6¢ to 7¢ indicate stable but minimal conviction, with 197 days to expiry providing ample time for sentiment shifts as the 2026 season approaches.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLB World Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLB World Series per the rules of MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from MLB (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x8a638b539c43375ea04e0e2501f4a877df4ab35ae67a1f60d0e034d75c8c38ef yes 100