Will Alvin Kamara be traded?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will Alvin Kamara be traded?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Polymarket. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $454k open interest, and the 18¢ spread reflects significant pricing uncertainty.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $454k open interest, and the 18¢ spread reflects significant pricing uncertainty. The 3363% implied yield on the "Yes" side is extraordinarily high and likely reflects the thin liquidity rather than genuine market conviction, especially given the neutral regime score and low 10% probability. With over 18 months until the July 2026 deadline and a cliff risk index of 9 (indicating potential sharp moves), this appears to be a speculative position with minimal recent trading activity rather than an actively discovered price.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed NFL player is traded by July 22, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x8d574d2bf7145f4084eba38cabdde3174b59d19836c42fc8f1812056df8d3980 yes 100