Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1400.00 and 1449.99 at the end of December 2026?

The Yes position trades at an extreme 1273% implied yield with virtually no 24-hour volume, suggesting the 10¢ price reflects illiquidity rather than genuine conviction that the ARS will remain in the 1400-1449.99 band by end-2026. The 16¢ spread and high realized volatility (1699%) indicate substantial uncertainty around Argentina's currency trajectory, with the market pricing in significant peso depreciation beyond the specified range as base case. With 258 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 9, this appears to be a low-liquidity trap where the extreme yield compensates for both tail risk and the difficulty of exiting the position.

Resolution rules

This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA). This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/). If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date. The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Indicators

Regime

Trade