Will the Republican Party win the WA-02 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with the Yes side offering a staggering 2091.8% implied yield versus just 15.8% for No, reflecting the 8¢ price that prices Republicans at only 8% to win this traditionally Democratic Washington seat. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $31,811 open interest and a tight 1¢ spread suggests illiquidity despite the high theoretical returns, indicating this may be a niche position held by a small number of traders rather than an actively discovered price. With 201 days to expiry and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 12, the extreme yield differential warrants skepticism—such asymmetry often signals either mispricing or that the market is correctly pricing in WA-02 as heavily Democratic territory where Republican odds are genuinely minimal.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade