What is the current probability for "Will Robert Lulgjuraj be the Republican Nominee for MI-10?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 21¢ (21% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on August 4, 2026. 104 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Robert Lulgjuraj be the Republican Nominee for MI-10?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1315.2% and 92.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Robert Lulgjuraj be the Republican Nominee for MI-10?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Robert Lulgjuraj be the Republican Nominee for MI-10?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 21% probability that Will Robert Lulgjuraj be the Republican Nominee for MI-10?. This contract trades at 21¢ on Polymarket, closing August 4, 2026.

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21¢

Bid/Ask 5/38¢·Spread 33¢·Vol $0·OI $1,658.604·Closes Aug 4, 2026·104d remaining

0x91425cc04fd80ef0e75f8f5b15272e8a65accf5099665bb187024732efca21a9

7-day price135 snapshots · 2 regime

31¢21¢ current

Apr 1018¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1315.2%

IY (No) 92.9%

Adj IY 1315%

CRI 4

RV 1141%

VR 3.18

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1315.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	92.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1315%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1141%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.18	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.0/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

33¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 2:29:51 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 2:23:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x91425cc04fd80ef0e75f8f5b15272e8a65accf5099665bb187024732efca21a9 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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