Will Merab Dvalishvili be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will Merab Dvalishvili be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. The market is pricing Dvalishvili at just 14% to retain or reclaim the bantamweight title by year-end 2026, offering an extreme 869% implied yield on "Yes" positions despite 258 days to resolution.
Analysis
The market is pricing Dvalishvili at just 14% to retain or reclaim the bantamweight title by year-end 2026, offering an extreme 869% implied yield on "Yes" positions despite 258 days to resolution. The extremely low 24-hour volume of $2.6 against $1.1M open interest signals severe illiquidity, making the 3¢ spread potentially misleading and creating execution risk for any meaningful position. The 716% realized volatility and 2.64 vol ratio indicate this market experiences dramatic price swings, likely driven by UFC fight results and injury news rather than fundamental repricing.
Also on kalshi at 8¢(Δ +5¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Bantamweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
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sf trade 0x94aa9bfc79a8458b5e596aa00bafc87fda284d0536219675c5735677a08b5afc yes 100