Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing October 31, 2026. The Mets are priced at a severe discount (4¢) with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 4448% for YES positions, suggesting extreme undervaluation or distressed liquidity conditions typical of long-tail sports outcomes.
Analysis
The Mets are priced at a severe discount (4¢) with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 4448% for YES positions, suggesting extreme undervaluation or distressed liquidity conditions typical of long-tail sports outcomes. The market has experienced significant volatility (1743% realized vol) with the price declining 50% over seven days from 6¢, though the $125k open interest and $8k daily volume indicate this is a niche position with potential liquidity constraints. With 197 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 24, the market remains vulnerable to sharp repricing as the 2026 season approaches and actual team performance data emerges.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLB World Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLB World Series per the rules of MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from MLB (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Trade
sf trade 0x98b595f40feccf49ded360d1eb15b9bb81041cc6006da00441a743dcef74f0e7 yes 100